Climate Risk Modifier

Understanding Climate Risk Modifier

Declared disasters or displacement events do not suspend GBV enforcement obligations. The Climate Modifier exists to make sure accountability holds during stress.

Why It Matters

How It Works

When a jurisdiction faces a declared disaster or displacement in the reporting year, the Climate Risk Modifier compares crisis‑period enforcement to ordinary‑condition baselines across five checks: intake integrity, arrest & indictment continuity, sentencing parity, protection‑order enforcement, and data integration (coding of disaster status and end‑to‑end case tracing)

FAQs

What is the Climate Risk Modifier?

It’s a methodology that tests whether GBV enforcement weakens during declared disasters or displacement; if so, it lowers the grade to reflect reduced accountability under stress

Why is it downward‑only?

Which parts of enforcement are assessed?

Which factors to look for?

When does it apply?

Five dimensions: intake integrity, arrest & indictment continuity, sentencing parity, protection‑order enforcement, and data integration to follow cases end‑to‑end.

Only when two conditions hold: (a) climate‑displacement exposure is significant in the reporting year; and (b) enforcement during the disaster is materially weaker than baseline.

Maintaining baseline performance under stress confirms accountability but isn’t an “extra.” The Modifier is designed to enforce minimum standards, not award bonuses; therefore it cannot raise a grade.

Signals like lower indictment rates, weaker sentencing, diversion inflation, or protection‑order enforcement failures during the disaster period—validated by coded disaster status, traceable cases from intake to sentencing, and publicly disaggregated reporting